Saturday, February 23, 2008

One sorry Tory - Updated

3:30 Update - We now have some Live-blogging going on courtesy of Darryl Wolk!

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This should cinch the question about whether or not John Tory deserves to remain as leader - Mailing of support letters from party HQ a 'mistake': John Tory. (H/T National Newswatch)

...Mr. Tory said his supporters made an "inadvertent" slip when they used party resources to mail out hundreds of letters of support for him. Party headquarters and its staff are supposed to remain neutral in leadership matters.

"It was a mistake," Mr. Tory told reporters yesterday afternoon. "It was admitted and dealt with. ... It was just something that happened that shouldn't have."

And as The Politic pointed out a few weeks ago, this isn't the first time that John Tory has been forced to apologize for something his supporters have done. Matthew rightly asks, "What if this happened during an election?"

These violations and lack of control demonstrate once again that John Tory needs to agree to a proper leadership campaign.


And if that doesn't convince you, how about this? -

...The anti-Tory camp also released polling numbers backing up their claim that the party is unlikely to win the next provincial election in 2011 with Mr. Tory at the helm.

Just more than half the people surveyed said they were less likely to vote for a John Tory-led Conservative party according to the poll, which was conducted by BBM Analytics and sampled 380 people. Thirty per cent of respondents said they were more likely to vote Conservative if he remained leader. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 per cent...



Say goodnight, John.


* * * *
Update: Do or Die for John Tory - LFP. Schedule of events at the end of article.

John Tory woos PC delegates, nixes faith-based schools funding - CNEWS.

Back off Government - Tory or not to Tory?

6:30 Conservatives back Tory - Star (But not a whole lot)

7:30 PM - Ontario PCs in limbo as Tory receives lukewarm support (Globe)


39 comments:

Raphael Alexander said...

Any word on what the numbers were from last night yet?

Swift said...

We might be lucky if Tory stays on . 2011 might only produce a minority NDP government. In that case we could have a Tory-less conservative government before 2015.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Raphael, I haven't heard anything yet.

Swift, I know that's an oblique reference to a previous prediction of yours. Could you please refresh my memory? Thanks.

Adam Daifallah said...

Is anyone blogging from the convention? Need info!

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Tory's speaking live right now.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Try CTV newsnet or Citypulse 24.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Got to hand it to Tory - He talks a good game.

Caveat said...

I can't help but suspect sabotage re: the letters being sent out from the party office. This is not a 'mistake', everybody knows the rules, even lowly riding members like me.

The vote is later this afternoon, I believe. Remember, it's not about JT per se, it's about whether a leadership review is advisable which would lead to a leadership contest.

JT indicated to us that if that's what people want, fine but he may decide not to stick around to compete for the job he already holds. Kind of have to agree with him there.

Then what? Then who?

However it goes, we'll deal with it.

Raphael Alexander said...

NDP government? Come on! Not bloody likely.

Anonymous said...

If John Tory manages to cling to power, I can hardly wait for his 2011 "Lessons Learned Again" tour.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Here's the CP release from an hour ago.

Swift said...

I didn't give all my reasons for predicting an NDP victory in 2011 last time, so I will expand them now. The first is that McGuinty will mess things up so badly that no issue is going to take the spotlight off his record. Thus Ontario voters will be in an any body but the Liberals mode.

All signs of the NDP strategy in the coming federal election point to the NDP attacking the Liberals as much or more than the Conservatives. If they do this they will likely win 40+ seats. With an election disaster facing the Liberals in Ontario, I expect the NDP to copy the federal counterparts lead in strategy. This will be even more tempting because the division that Tory's continuing leadership will cause in the Conservative Party.

Tory has clearly lost the confidence of many in the party, and also of many potential voters. In the next election there will be many potential workers who will simply not show up and not donate to their local ridings. In part this will because of the FBF issue, but more importantly because of the John Tory "Liberal with blue signs" election platform. Even worse many of these people may completely abandon the conservatives and work for the Family Coalition Party or one of the new right wing political parties that some people are attempting to start up. In Alberta the recently merged Wildrose and Alliance parties started because the Conservatives abandoned conservatism.

For the general population the big albatross around Tory's neck will be the FBF issue. Four years is not going to be enough to distance Tory from that issue, and the world situation is likely to increase the negative implications of the proposal by the next election.

The best result I can see for a Tory led Conservative Party in 2011 is about 40 seats, with the Liberals holding on to just enough seats to prevent the NDP from forming a minority government. Given John's record of political judgement I can't imagine he would be able to prevent a non confidence motion from succeeding for more than a few months, just enough time for the Liberals to get a new leader. The following election would give either the NDP or the Liberals a minority government, depending on the performance of the new Liberal leader.

Swift said...

"Those who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it." Rapheal might want to look up the situation that lad to Bob Rae becoming premier, and what party he was leader of.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Very intriguing (and depressing) analysis, Swift. Thanks for that.

So it would be somewhat of an accidental NDP government if one were to occur, right?

Swift said...

If you think that is depressing you won't want to read my worst case scenario. However I would not call an NDP victory in 2011 an accident. The probable situation in Western Europe in the next three years will mean FBF and the McGuinty flirtation with Sharia law will be biog negatives for the Libs and PCs. If the provincial NDP can avoid the taint of Taliban Jack they will have an advantage.

If the NDP are smart they will take advantage of the "we're Liberals without the corruption" John Tory campaign platform to through doubt upon any changes made to the platform for the next election. Why vote for the Conservatives when the leader's real platform is the same as the Liberal one that everybody now can see was such a disaster? JT has made too many mistakes that can be used against him in the next campaign to be an asset.

Anonymous said...

The best situation for Liberals is if John Tory gets 51 - 65% of the vote and stays on a leader. The party will be divided.

For those interested, a deal has been struck on the floor today. If Tory is able to stay on as leader, Joyce Savoline will step down in Burlington and allow Mr. Tory to run for her seat.

Swift said...

With a less than 2000 vote difference between the Libs and the Tories in the last two elections plus the Feb '07 byelection Burlington is not a very safe seat. Strategy question for the Libs: do you go all out and try to defeat JT or do you make a god show, but manage to lose just to keep a leader of the Tories you think you can beat in the next general election?

Joanne (True Blue) said...

For those interested, a deal has been struck on the floor today. If Tory is able to stay on as leader, Joyce Savoline will step down in Burlington and allow Mr. Tory to run for her seat.

And what does Ms. Savoline get out of this deal?

Anonymous said...

Probably a cabinet post down the road. Or an appointment.

Anonymous said...

Tory got 66.3%

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Tory got 66.3%

That's not an overwhelming endorsement. What's the next step?

Raphael Alexander said...

66% is a passing grade for a compulsive credit in high school! :)

I vote keep Tory and stop the hand-wringing waste of time. Let's focus on finding out how to defeat Dalton's dystopia.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Raphael, yeah. I guess that's what we'll do. Just watching the details on Inquiry.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

How're ya feeling now, Swift? Shall we raise a toast to Howard Hampton?

Swift said...

I'm not surprised. I was talking to Steven last week and we both thought that he would get around 2/3rds of the vote. If I was still in Kitchener I would be very tempted to go down to Burlington and work the election: for the Liberals!

Joanne (True Blue) said...

If I was still in Kitchener I would be very tempted to go down to Burlington and work the election: for the Liberals!

Well, I'm not that desperate, yet!

Möbius said...

I vote keep Tory and stop the hand-wringing waste of time. Let's focus on finding out how to defeat Dalton's dystopia.

I would agree with you if you were the federal Liberals, and had no time to make changes.

We have at least 4 years to do better in the Ontario PC party (and 4 more years of damage to the provincial economy by D McG), and we're still wasting time with someone who has no idea how to run a campaign?

Swift said...

Joanne, I am glad realize it is just a matter of time until you are that desperate.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Swift, I was kidding! I'll sit home rather than vote Liberal again. Did it once. Never again.

Anonymous said...

Word from the convention is that on Wednesday, Tory will hold a press conference from the civic centre in Burlington at 2pm to announce that he will be staying on as leader and that Joyce Savoline will be stepping down as Burlington's MPP. He'll call on Dalton McGuinty to declare a by-election right away.

He will also be releasing a policy document that will outline a number of bills and issues the party hopes to champion over the next few years, as well as an overhauled fiberals.ca website.

It looks like he's back in the saddle and not going anywhere.

Ron.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Well, thanks Ron. Not the best news, but at least it's settled. How do you feel about it?

Swift said...

If you were convinced a vote for JT in Burlington is a vote against a Conservative government in 2011 would you work for the Liberals? I just went over the results from the last election riding by riding and I can't see where the Conservatives can win even twenty extra seats without a complete change of direction. Some of the ones that they currently hold are questionable. To make a complete change of direction believable for the average voter you need a new leader. Has there ever been a politician in Canada who couldn't even win his own seat in one election but went onto lead his party to victory in the next election?

Swift said...

"He will also be releasing a policy document..." Tory's promise of grassroots policy development didn't last very long did it?

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Tory's promise of grassroots policy development didn't last very long did it?

Ain't that the truth?

I need to get my mind off this for a while. It's really bugging me.

Anonymous said...

I voted to keep John yesterday. I still think its the best plan. For full disclosure, I was the deputy tour director of the last election.

Ron.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Well, Ron. I hope you're right. I really do.

If you have John's ear, ask him to have someone contact various conservative blogs for suggestions. We are the conduits of frustration from ordinary people. Might be able to pass along ideas and concerns.

Anonymous said...

I don't really have John's ear so to speak. I voted for him because I have seen his work ethic first hand. For the last three years I have been setting up meeting after meeting after media interview after local fundraiser after friendraser after party fundraiser after local media interview after campaign stop. I have seen how hard the works to build the party and make it stronger. I do not think that someone else can jump into that role right now. If John were to step down and run in a leadership race, he will win it anyways. I think we need to focus our energy on the Liberals and let John do what he does best.

Ron.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

If John were to step down and run in a leadership race, he will win it anyways. I think we need to focus our energy on the Liberals and let John do what he does best.

Ron, that makes sense to me. We all need to take a breath and try to come together in recognition of who public enemy number one is.

Möbius said...

I voted to keep John yesterday. I still think its the best plan. For full disclosure, I was the deputy tour director of the last election.

With all respect for your efforts, the election was lost before it began, due to stupid policies adopted under Tory. Almost every conservative blogger knew it, and the polls predicted it, before it became etched in stone. So, why was it not given the axe?

It all comes down to leadership. We now have 4 years to fix it, and we had better start right now, with a fresh leader.

Not likely now, apparently. We've just given the Liberals power until 2016. Consider what the province will look like then.