Saturday, January 19, 2008

Something just doesn't add up here

Duceppe sets sights on Tories...

"Our main interest is to make everything so that the government doesn't have a majority," said Barbot, who will square off against Liberal star candidate Justin Trudeau in the Montreal riding of Papineau.

"The population never wants to go into an election, that's for sure, but it's something we have to do and no doubt they are recognizing there is a need for that now."

So, if your main interest is to make sure the government doesn't have a majority, why bring down a minority government?

Just askin'.

9 comments:

Roy said...

there won't be an election if there is I can't see how the liberals are going to pay for it they have no money. I infact can't see how there even gonna put out adds unless there is a sponsership scandal with CBC which will give them free advertising because there liberals. or connected to them.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Roy, I don't think an election would benefit anyone, except perhaps Ignatieff or Rae.

Kingston said...

Roy, I see it the other way, the LPC has no choice but to begin to vote again or they will have no creditability left. The election commercials are going to be bad enough when the CPC shows the LPC sitting on their hands during votes. I agree with you that I do not believe they are ready, but unless they can convince one of the other parties to support the budget they are going to be totally screwed.

Concerned said...

It does look like whatever little credibility the LPC has left is now in the hands of the other opposition parties.
Now the question is, will they save them, or carve them up like a Thanksgiving turkey?

VW said...

Well, here's the thing: there is a possibility that the Tories may get an accidental majority.

The theory of how it could happen could go like this: in Liberal-safe ridings, voters who would normally go Liberal would be so turned off by Stephane Dion that, come the next election, they would decide either to (a) vote for someone else or (b) abstain altogether. They might decide that since there are so many Liberal voters out there, one less won't make a difference.

However, it turns out a lot of would-be Liberal voters think like this, and as a result the Liberal vote declines dramatically, allowing the local Tory candidate to squeak in. The result is a Tory majority with less than 50 percent of the popular vote, and cries among the left and left-center for a reformed system of government based on PR or some such like that.

This is what Gilles Duceppe has added up. He recognizes that the Tories have replaced the Liberals as the most probably recipient of the federalist vote. His job then, is to convinced the disenfranchised Liberal voter that the Tories aren't responsive enough to Quebec interests. There are certainly enough seats in Quebec, even with redistribution, that a majority government is impossible without them.

The problem with Duceppe's take is that he can't be sure that the federalist-sovereigntist tensions will still be in strength. Last year's provincial election demonstrated that Quebeckers didn't want to think along those lines anymore. It might still exist -- the plummeting in polls of the ADQ gives a certain hope to it -- but Duceppe won't really know how strong it is until during the campaign.

Kingston said...

VW, I agree with your theory, the other part of the equation is the NDP has no where to go for votes but to the LPC supporters, vice versa for the LPC to the NDP with the greens stealing the hard green vote in both.
The CPC basic support seems firm at around 33-35 so they need to "borrow" five percent or so from the small L vote to achieve majority numbers.
The NDP gains nothing from slamming the govt in any great depth because they will never get those hard CPC votes anyway, they have to go after the LPC and this will force the LPC to go after the NDP to try and stop any bleeding. The LPC will not be able to use the "Scary Hidden Agenda" theme again as while people on the left may not agree with the CPC program, it has been far from scary or hidden.
I also predict that the CPC will again run a very organized campaign vice the LPC who are having a hard time staying on point right now. The other thing that the CPC has done which must have the LPC gnawing at their own legs in frustration is they gave back to the taxpayer a lot of the surplus that they the LPC could of utilized to fund future big social programs, read Child Care, etc which the LPC would have to admit would require either cuts in other programs i.e. Defense or an increase in taxes. Just my thoughts

Kingston said...

P.S. Concerned I also predict that the bloq and NDP announce their non support for the next budget within seconds of the embargo being lifted thus placing the LPC as the party that has to bring the govt down. The question then becomes,Sarcasm on "are Canadians now ready for and election". Sarcasm Off

maryT said...

We can only hope that in the coming campaign that liberal voters follow dion's action and sit on their hands.
200,000 conservative voters stayed home last AB election, and many stayed home in the by-election to replace Ralph.
What would the results be if 200,000 Ont libs stayed home.
By staying home the party would be denied that 1.75/vote as would any party expecting the protest vote.

Möbius said...

The other thing that the CPC has done which must have the LPC gnawing at their own legs in frustration is they gave back to the taxpayer a lot of the surplus that they the LPC could of utilized to fund future big social programs, read Child Care, etc which the LPC would have to admit would require either cuts in other programs

The more of this the better, as far as I'm concerned.

My wife and I actually decided to raise our own children, on one income, and forego the big house and multiple cars. One has finished university, the other is in the process, and I'm proud of both of them for their drive to achieve.

For this, we get to pay the same taxes as a 2-income family that farms their kids out to day-care.