Well, MSM and the blogosphere are rife with speculation about today's Quebec byelections. Even a few brave souls at Liblogs are venturing forward to share their thoughts.
Please feel free to weigh in here. It should be quite the ride.
19 comments:
Anonymous
said...
I feel it will be: Bloq, CPC and Libs. All the chatter about a Lib Loss will bring out some of the "bus troops" and pull off a very narrow victory.
But what do I know? Living on the West Coast as Teddi
After all the public fighting and mud-slinging between the Libs, I really can't see them pulling this off. They look so unprofessional that I just can't imagine anybody feeling confident enough to vote for them (but what do I know here in the 'Peg!) Should be really, really interesting though!
I live in Outremont. The liberal campaign has been pathetic. Last week Coulon refused to be in a candidate debate on CBC Radio. All these last minute stops by so called grit big wig show desperation.
I agree, the poor publicity will probably do it for the Liberals. Tories and Liberal-Tory switchers (few in number tho they may be) will probably shift towards the NDP. It happened in Windsor West after Herb Grey retired, Tory voters switched to the NDP en masse in order to elect Brian Masse. Despite the fact that Masse started off in third place BEHIND the Tories.
It's no surprise that Dion is turning out to be a weak campaigner. If the Liberal delegates paused to try and picture Dion giving stump speeches and rallying the troops, they might have come to their senses, before making such a bad choice.
We also now see the inevitable consequences of the delegates picking someone with so little support from fellow MPs. Those MPs obviously knew somthing about Dion that the delegates didn't.
Contrast this with Harper's first round win of the CPC leadership, with 56 % support, and over 30 MPs on hand when he announced he was running for the leadership. Harper now has a solid mandate, a united team behind him, with pretty well unquestioned support for whatever he wants to do.
The Liberals spun their race as wide open, anybody could win, the excitement of a delegated convention, four days of free media exposure, etc etc. So how did all the "advantages" of their process play out ?
Hmmm. What are the Conservatives running in Outremont again? SEVEN PERCENT, isn't it? Yes, 7%. Despite bending over backwards to recognize Quebec as a "nation" and despite HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars to "solve" the "fiscal imbalance" (aka a massive tax cut). And yet, they have... 7%.
For what it's worth, I just calculated the average support for the parties in the three ridings:
BQ 33% CPC 27% LPC 16% NDP 16% GP 6% Oth 1%
My conclusion - it's becoming more clear that it's the Conservatives who are (at present) seen as the alternative to the Bloc (at least outside Montreal).
And, my prediction is that the NDP will take Outremont. I think all the "bus troops" that the Liberals are bringing in is more apt to provoke a backlash against "outsiders" trying to tell Outremont's voters how to vote.
Despite the libs trying to buy off Quebecers with STOLEN tax money, they still aren't guaranteed a win. The Conservatives may be at 7 percent, but it is the Liberals' to lose. Seems all the money the Liberals stole from the taxpayers isn't helping as much as they thought it would. If the Liberals lose in Outremont, it couldn't happen to a nicer excrement-hiding group of clowns.
Its like pointing out that the Liberals are sunk because they are at 5% in a rural Alberta riding. Or a rural Quebec riding. That isn't their demographic area, nor an area that the Liberals are strong so it is an unfair comparison. Especially when the Tories are so close to knocking off a BQ seat.
The Tories were never strong in Montreal or Outrement and never stood a chance there anyways. What support the Tories do have is, as I said, leeching off towards the NDP because they perceive him as having a better chance to win. It happened in Windsor West during a by-election as well. The Tory vote collapsed into the NDP vote because people saw the NDP as having the best chance to beat the Liberals. During the full election the Tory vote reformed but by then the Liberal's best candidate had taken a pass.
What matters about Outrement is that it is a Liberal stronghold that has voted Liberals as odious as Jean Lapierre in by large margins for the last 80 years (with one exception). If the NDP can take it here with a good candidate, then what does it say about the Liberals?
I mean hell, up to last week, the Liberals were still denying that the NDP was even a challenger!
SouthernOntarioan — Yep, you're right. The Conservatives have never been strong in urban areas like Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. The current by-elections show little change in that trend.
Möbius — I'd have to do some digging to answer the question honestly. I'm not sure offhand what the PC grasp in urban centers was over the last twenty years or so. If we presume that it wasn't ever that great, I don't have an easy explanation as to why that may be.
Red T... the city of Vancouver has a population of about 600000 which really means that it is some 400000 behind the city of Calgary (which has done very well for the Conservatives eh?). That said if you are willing to include the "lower mainland" surrounding the area along the Fraser River then in fact the CPC has done very well, both recently and in the past (Reform etc)
19 comments:
I feel it will be: Bloq, CPC and Libs. All the chatter about a Lib Loss will bring out some of the "bus troops" and pull off a very narrow victory.
But what do I know? Living on the West Coast as Teddi
What do I know either, living in the anarchy of Ontario?
After all the public fighting and mud-slinging between the Libs, I really can't see them pulling this off. They look so unprofessional that I just can't imagine anybody feeling confident enough to vote for them (but what do I know here in the 'Peg!) Should be really, really interesting though!
I live in Outremont. The liberal campaign has been pathetic. Last week Coulon refused to be in a candidate debate on CBC Radio. All these last minute stops by so called grit big wig show desperation.
And the plot sickens.
I agree, the poor publicity will probably do it for the Liberals. Tories and Liberal-Tory switchers (few in number tho they may be) will probably shift towards the NDP. It happened in Windsor West after Herb Grey retired, Tory voters switched to the NDP en masse in order to elect Brian Masse. Despite the fact that Masse started off in third place BEHIND the Tories.
I predict Bloc, CPC and NDP.
Dion who?
It's no surprise that Dion is turning out to be a weak campaigner. If the Liberal delegates paused to try and picture Dion giving stump speeches and rallying the troops, they might have come to their senses, before making such a bad choice.
We also now see the inevitable consequences of the delegates picking someone with so little support from fellow MPs. Those MPs obviously knew somthing about Dion that the delegates didn't.
Contrast this with Harper's first round win of the CPC leadership, with 56 % support, and over 30 MPs on hand when he announced he was running for the leadership. Harper now has a solid mandate, a united team behind him, with pretty well unquestioned support for whatever he wants to do.
The Liberals spun their race as wide open, anybody could win, the excitement of a delegated convention, four days of free media exposure, etc etc. So how did all the "advantages" of their process play out ?
Hmmm. What are the Conservatives running in Outremont again? SEVEN PERCENT, isn't it? Yes, 7%. Despite bending over backwards to recognize Quebec as a "nation" and despite HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars to "solve" the "fiscal imbalance" (aka a massive tax cut). And yet, they have... 7%.
Sorry to interrupt your crowing.
Meanwhile, in Ste. Hyacinthe, the Liberals are in fifth place at 5 %.
source
Quite so. There was never much hope it would be otherwise.
For what it's worth, I just calculated the average support for the parties in the three ridings:
BQ 33%
CPC 27%
LPC 16%
NDP 16%
GP 6%
Oth 1%
My conclusion - it's becoming more clear that it's the Conservatives who are (at present) seen as the alternative to the Bloc (at least outside Montreal).
And, my prediction is that the NDP will take Outremont. I think all the "bus troops" that the Liberals are bringing in is more apt to provoke a backlash against "outsiders" trying to tell Outremont's voters how to vote.
Despite the libs trying to buy off Quebecers with STOLEN tax money, they still aren't guaranteed a win. The Conservatives may be at 7 percent, but it is the Liberals' to lose. Seems all the money the Liberals stole from the taxpayers isn't helping as much as they thought it would. If the Liberals lose in Outremont, it couldn't happen to a nicer excrement-hiding group of clowns.
Brian — Sorry, but your "average" numbers are completely meaningless.
Nice try Red Tory, but your spin is silly.
Its like pointing out that the Liberals are sunk because they are at 5% in a rural Alberta riding. Or a rural Quebec riding. That isn't their demographic area, nor an area that the Liberals are strong so it is an unfair comparison. Especially when the Tories are so close to knocking off a BQ seat.
The Tories were never strong in Montreal or Outrement and never stood a chance there anyways. What support the Tories do have is, as I said, leeching off towards the NDP because they perceive him as having a better chance to win. It happened in Windsor West during a by-election as well. The Tory vote collapsed into the NDP vote because people saw the NDP as having the best chance to beat the Liberals. During the full election the Tory vote reformed but by then the Liberal's best candidate had taken a pass.
What matters about Outrement is that it is a Liberal stronghold that has voted Liberals as odious as Jean Lapierre in by large margins for the last 80 years (with one exception). If the NDP can take it here with a good candidate, then what does it say about the Liberals?
I mean hell, up to last week, the Liberals were still denying that the NDP was even a challenger!
SouthernOntarioan — Yep, you're right. The Conservatives have never been strong in urban areas like Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. The current by-elections show little change in that trend.
Good luck with that.
RT says,
"The Conservatives have never been strong in urban areas like Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver."
Honestly, Red, why do you think that is?
Was it any different under Clark, a real live Red Tory?
I am really asking non-rhetorically.
Möbius — I'd have to do some digging to answer the question honestly. I'm not sure offhand what the PC grasp in urban centers was over the last twenty years or so. If we presume that it wasn't ever that great, I don't have an easy explanation as to why that may be.
Red T... the city of Vancouver has a population of about 600000 which really means that it is some 400000 behind the city of Calgary (which has done very well for the Conservatives eh?). That said if you are willing to include the "lower mainland" surrounding the area along the Fraser River then in fact the CPC has done very well, both recently and in the past (Reform etc)
West coast Teddi
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