Tuesday, October 02, 2007

NDP losing ground

According to pollster Nik Nanos, president of SES Research, the Ontario Liberal Party is moving into majority territory at the expense of the NDP (H/T National Newswatch). Women voters, in particular, seem to be heading in that direction:

"New Democratic women are moving out of the NDP column and into the Liberal column, potentially to block John Tory," Nanos said.

The poll indicates Liberal support among women rose by 11 per cent over the past week and more than half of all women -- 53 per cent -- now say they intend to vote Liberal.

It appears much of that movement came at the expense of the NDP, which saw its support among women fall by 10 points to 13 per cent.

However, the survey was obviously conducted prior to John Tory's announcement yesterday, so anything could happen over the next week.

Margaret Wente
has some positive things to say about the PC leader, but wonders if he'll be the best Premier Ontario never had.


I guess when it comes down to it, being open and honest in politics is not always a winning strategy.

Sad state of affairs for Ontario.

* * * *
Update: I take issue with Lorrie Goldstein's POV this morning - "Free Vote Won't Solve Tory's Problem". He states:


As Sun Media pollster Nik Nanos of SES Research said yesterday, Tory still hasn't given either opponents or supporters of his controversial policy what they want -- certainty.

People still don't know whether electing a Conservative government means there will be funding or not.


Bunk.

The likelihood of FB Funding actually occurring is very low given that many PC candidates are now openly declaring that they would vote against any such legislation, and the other parties declaring they wouldn't even consider it (except for funding the Catholic system in Dalton's case).

(Even though Dalton could very possibly introduce some version of multi-faith funding himself at some point to placate his Toronto immigrant base.)

However, it might be that Nik Nankos and Lorrie Goldstein are just being realistic about a Liberal Premier and campaign war room that would say and do anything to win.

- And an Ontario population that picks up its news in 10 second sound bytes.

* * * *

Christina Blizzard - John Tory's about-face:

On the economy, he (Tory) says the economy "is registered as being last in the whole country in terms of growth.

"When was the last time we heard that as a headline in the newspaper?" he asked.

Exactly.


20 comments:

Jeff Davidson said...

On the economy, he (Tory) says the economy "is registered as being last in the whole country in terms of growth.

what magic beans does john tory have that mcguinty doesn't that could have prevented the slow and steady departure of manufacturing in this province thanks to a weak US dollar?

further, when you talk to anyone in manufacturing, and i do, often, the lathes and presses are being sold off and shipped to china and india. do you blame cheap labour on mcguinty also?

what has the federal govt done to help ontario's economy? huh? SFA. why? simple. harper has funnelled all his attention and OUR money into buying quebec.

conservative govts have let this province down consistantly. tory has never lasted at his various positions for long. he's a loser. he lost his mayoral bid, he's in danger of losing to wynne next week for pete's sake.

frank miller was the last conservative to tinker with faith-based fundiong and lot at the cost to the party.... the end of a politcal dynasty.

harris' legacy will keep the cons out for another 4 years. we're safe for now.

Lord Kitchener's Own said...

So, what you're saying is that it's a certainty that even a majority Conservative government won't implement the policy that Tory made the centre of the campaign, and that he considers an issue of fundamental fairness and equality?
I think that's likely too (though I can't say it's a certainty... is Tory pledging to stop trying to sell this idea to his caucus and bring them on board???). I fail to see why voters would be persuaded by someone who basically comes right out and says "Here's what I think we should do, I think it's extremely important, but don't worry, vote for me anyway because it's NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN!". Maybe if he'd been saying all along this would be a free vote that would be different, but that's not what he was saying last week. Also, I'm cynical enough to be unconvinced that all those people who are running away from Tory now won't change their minds after they get elected and switch back onside with the Premier (if Tory's Premier). Just like Tory suddenly downgraded the issue and decided it should be a free vote when he discovered he was 15 points behind in his own riding, I won't be shocked if opponents of FB school funding change their minds after they get their cabinet positions.

Anyway, clearly Tory supporters have a different idea of what being "open and honest" in politics means. I would have agreed with you last week if you described Tory that way. I would have added "principled" too. Not anymore.

Lord Kitchener's Own said...

On the NDP thing, as much as it helps the Liberals, I would think at this point small-c conservatives would have to see that as a bit of a blessing. Personally, I don't think Tory can pull this out of the fire. That being the case, we either get a Liberal minority, or a Liberal majority. I would have thought, given those two options, that conservatives would actually prefer a Liberal majority. 'Cause I don't see a Liberal minority running to John Tory for support. Isn't a Liberal minority basically a Liberal/NDP government. Isn't that WORSE from a small-c conservative point of view?

It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues, but it wouldn't shock me if a block Tory movement came up now, given Tory's latest move, and that a lot of moderate NDP voters switch back to the Liberals.

Personally, I haven't decided who to vote for yet, but this election, of all elections, I was leaning towards voting ENTIRELY on who my local candidates are, and ignoring the "party" because I don't really care if McGunity stays Premier, and it didn't bother me at all to think that my voting NDP or Green might let Tory in to the Premier's office (my riding's pretty safely Liberal, so I vote Liberal when I REALLY like the Liberals, or when I REALLY hate the Tories, neither of which was true this election). I have to say (and I'm probably in the minority) that I really didn't like this latest move by John Tory. There's now at least a remote possibility I'll vote Liberal, which I wouldn't have said as late as Saturday. It's still pretty remote mind you, but I can't believe I'm the only Liberal swing voter to have that reaction (though I suppose conservative Liberal swing voters may have swung back to Tory too).

This'll be an interesting week!

bluetech said...

Magic beans jeffy?
Try lowering taxes.

Greg said...

I voted in the advance last night, (for Gerry Martiniuk of course), and no on teh referendum. My advice would be to vote early, not on election day regardless of your decision. The rules appear to be a little different. I had to make it through 4 people, including 2 reviews of my ID, a verbal and signed declaration, and a verification of all of the spelling on my poll notice. 6:00-8:00pm might be a bit busy next Tuesday.

Brian said...

Oh ... how wonderful ... a socialist Liberal government backed up by an NDP tax and spend mentality.

I wonder if the people of Ontario will wake up on 11 October to and ask how did we get into this mess ?

OMMAG said...

".... we're safe for now."
Well yes safe in assuming that your future will be ever more debt ridden and economically bleak!
Safe as any of the colony of vermin as you rush en masse to the precipice of social and financial ruin.

Lemmings indeed!

Wayward son said...

Well, I just voted today. Unlike Greg, I had no issues at all. My riding will be a real nail-biter. The current MPP squeezed in with only 72.5% in 2003. A mere 57+% over the second place NDP (The Conservative was in the single digits not far ahead of the Greens).
The other two provincial elections I have voted in have been almost as tight. Howard Hampton’s narrow win in 2003 (beating his next closest opponent by a slim 34.5 points). And David Ramsay’s photo finish in 1999, where he only manage to beat out the Conservative by a hardly noticeable 3 – 1 margin. Three different Provincial elections, three different ridings, zero times where the outcome was not a forgone conclusion.
Sadly, the vote on whether to maintain FPTP or switch to MMP is the only vote (provincially or federally) where it is close enough that I feel that my vote was worth the 2 minutes of my time that voting takes.
I doubt that MMP will get the 60% required to pass – sounds like it is in the 55% range. But on the other hand I do look forward to hearing McGuinty (Like 2003 and like Harris and Rae before him) declaring that they have a strong mandate from the people just like the previous 4 governments which had absolute power on the basis of 38% - 46% support. No irony there.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

This'll be an interesting week!

LKO - On that point I'll agree with you.

Greg, thanks for the heads-up.

I wonder if the people of Ontario will wake up on 11 October to and ask how did we get into this mess ?.

Brian, they'll only have to look in the mirror to see the answer.

Jack said...

I've been thinking about Stockwell Day, the "religion" thingy and what Kinsella did to him.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Tory made the same mistake and so the pattern repeats as Kinsella does his thing again.

The moral of the story is that religion and politics don't mix -- especially during a campaign.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Well yes safe in assuming that your future will be ever more debt ridden and economically bleak!

And safe from the truth as well.

If you read Randall Denley's column, John Tory's Missed Opportunity, you'll see that at first it looks like he's bashing Tory, but when you get to the end, he says this:

This next week is critical to the future of our province. It would be easy to say it's John Tory's responsibility to somehow compel the public to pay attention to important issues. Really, though, it's up to us.

The public has played the role of disengaged spectator in this election, but what's actually at stake is how our education and health care systems will be run for the next four years and what taxes we will pay.

The public and the media have allowed themselves to be distracted by a minor education issue. The result is likely to be the re-election of a premier with a proven record of mendacity. We've got to wake up.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

The moral of the story is that religion and politics don't mix -- especially during a campaign.

Unless you're a Catholic.

Greg said...

I know you don't want to hear this Joanne, but this is another good instance where MMP would have prevented this situation. The Liberals are playing the "evil Tories" card big time (otherwise known as scare the dippers) and telling them to vote "strategically". If you don't believe me read Peter Hughes letter in the record from 2 days ago. If we had MMP, the Liberals would have literally nothing to say. Their whole strategy is to scare enough dippers to push them over 40% to get their "majority". Without the threat of splitting the vote to elect the Tories, the Liberals would be reduced to defending their own (laughable) ideas.

Anonymous said...

The PC campaign office in my riding says that folks are calling in to support Tory now. They weren't yesterday.

The riding was already leaning Tory Blue.

McGuinty blew in here today to make a reannouncement of an announcement.

My riding at least will go Blue!

Anonymous said...

Brian said...
Oh ... how wonderful ... a socialist Liberal government backed up by an NDP tax and spend mentality.

I wonder if the people of Ontario will wake up on 11 October to and ask how did we get into this mess ?

Brian, we will wake up probably sometime in 2008 when the teachers go on strike again because they didn't get a 16% wage increase.

Anonymous said...

RE: Really, though, it's up to us.

Look at the projections. South Central rural Ontario is Blue . “Sophisticated” urban centers are red. Then there are the red Catholic pockets. People carry baggage. People have fears. How is their bread buttered? Cities have become clients of the government. As long as the dollars trickle down, who cares if a few go to a cricket club. Not that everyone in the 416 and 905 has a cash for life public job. So you get people with opposed political views. I just moved out of a red riding into a blue riding and it feels great. I had to quit my job for a lower paying one but living with people who share values makes up for it. City hall still says the Lord’s prayer vs. handing out $thousands of dollar$ in little brown bags like TO city hall. I just couldn’t live in a community like that. And we also have a Home Depot. So True Blue, thanks for battling on the front lines. There are lots of communities in Ontario that stand with you and would welcome you any day.

OMMAG said...

Joanne.... I'd truly like to be a cheerleader for John Tory.

I'd love for a good conservative government to manage Ontario.

For that matter I'd love for a good government of any stripe to run Ontario..... or my province for what it's worth.

I'm sorry to say I see little hope.

Now the question looks to me like "How bad do things have to be before the sheeple wake up?"

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Now the question looks to me like "How bad do things have to be before the sheeple wake up?"

Another 4 years of McGuinty should do it.

Möbius said...

Tory has removed the biggest road-block for the support of a lot of conservatives in Ontario. This is only correct, as we are the base of support for the party.

I suspect between now and the election, there may be a shift in support that won't be picked up in the polls very well, that of cons un-nerved with FB funding talk. Stupid policy during an election, but withdrawn, albeit stubbornly.

I'm conservative in philosophy, and not ashamed of it, but I will not vote for a non-con in sheep's clothing, like Eves, just because a claim of PC affiliation. I also despise corruption, in any party.

Tory is a bit "red" for my liking, but compared to McG, there's no competition. Ontario conservatives need to make sure people see that FB funding is off the table, and try to get out the vote for him. Four years from now, we'll have a better province.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

'm conservative in philosophy, and not ashamed of it, but I will not vote for a non-con in sheep's clothing, like Eves, just because a claim of PC affiliation. I also despise corruption, in any party.

Tory is a bit "red" for my liking, but compared to McG, there's no competition.


I think you've articulated my feelings as well there. Well done, Möbius.