Thursday, March 13, 2008

Beware the Ides of By-election Month, Stéphane!

So it would appear that the Government still has its carte blanche this week.

Stéphane Dion figures Canadians still don't want an election at this exact point in time. Next week - who knows? Perhaps Dion consults astrological charts to determine the precise moment when Liberal fortunes will align with rising moon of electorate unrest.

Judging from what still remains of Dion's leadership debt, that could be a while off yet.

Bob Rae is in much better financial shape and has been rumoured to be the primary force in stalling an election before his expected win in next week's by-election. Then he'll likely want at least a few weeks to jockey for the limelight in Question Period in the House of Commons, instead of merely relying on his blog and TV interviews for appropriate exposure.

I'm guessing this Conservative government has a free pass, oh, let's say until mid-April.

That should give the CPC war room plenty of time to amass an extensive ad-campaign of Stephane Dion emphatically castigating the government on one hand, while meekly allowing every confidence motion to pass unchallenged.

And lots of time for Bob Rae to try to expunge his NDP past. (Also of interest is Ontario Health Minister George Smitherman's level of participation in Rae's campaign! At least that keeps busy, with the Legislature not sitting for so long.)

My prediction: LPC Leadership review this fall.

* * * *
Update: No election just yet... - Ottawa Sun.


Anonymous said...

And will he look in Rae's face and utter the all too familiar:

Hey'Too, Bobrae?!?

Couldn't resist Joanne..


maryT said...

I come to bury him, not to praise him.
I expect that the ndp or bloc will not support liberals to bring down the government, but prefer to see Dion twisting in the wind.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Bluetech, I wish I had thought of that one! lol!

The only thing I would change is:

'ey too, Boobrae?

Joe said...

Bob Rae has the Power Corp money and endorsement but how does he rate among the rank and file liberals? Last leadership convention he came in second and so many people didn't want him that Dion won. What will happen this time? Bob may well split the libs even further than Dion.

Ron said...

I can't wait til the 17th by-elections. The best case scenario is they loose 2 of them - this will put the nail in the coffin of Dion -- also, with Rae in the House and continuing his take over of the party, there is bound to be some tension and squabbling between Iggy and Rae supporters. Iggy missed his opportunity - Rae knows how to take over a party and ensure his friends are in the right place --- Iggy lost the battle when he couldn't get enough support to pull the plug and go to an election - wonder why? It's because the Camapign Manager is a Rae supporter and refused to allow the camapign to happen until Rae was in the House and ready to run. Good by Iggy.

molarmauler said...

Correct me if my view of history is a little fuzzy...

Was Harper ahead of the Liberals in the polls when he helped pull the plug on Martin? Was he 4-5 percentage points behind or statistically tied?

He saw a corrupt, ineffectual government that need to come down and account for itself to the people of Canada.

So now we see the Liberals 4-5% behind or statistically tied, depending on the poll du jour.

Dion rails that he sees a corrupt and ineffectual government that doesn't need to come down because it's too close to Easter. In spite of abandoning every core principle he has stated to possess.

It isn't easy to make Priorities and it's even tougher to stand up for Principles and it's damn near impossible to formulate a Platform. Performance is right out of the question.

But 3 Pillars? He can do that. But so can a milking stool.

Thucydides said...

Suggesting Bob Rae has ambitions for the Liberal leadership is one thing; suggesting he might get a free ride is something else.

First off, there is already a contender sitting in the house: deputy leader Michael Ignatieff, who is not likely to take this sitting down.

Next, I'm sure this has to be put in the context of the Chretien/Martin split in the Liberal party. With his Power Corp backing, Rae would seem to be the Chretien heir apparent, but as far as I know, the Martinites still have a lock on the party machinery at the riding level. How will they react to the Chretien revival?

Finally, disenchanted Liberals might not see Bob Rae as anything but "old news" (and bad news at that). Since Liberals don't seem to be about a coherent philosophy or campaign platform, they may slide back to the cult of personality; looking to Justin Trudeau as their savior. Given the apparent success of Obamamania in the United States, this is certainly a real possibility to Liberal supporters who seek to flee from the past.

Anonymous said...

I don't see how any normal thinking Canadian could align themselves with either the Lib ,or the Con .Just watching the news CBC of coarse ...Gomery's statement seems to contradict the govt. words ....Reporters asking questions about issues on the Cadman affair ...same questions over and over again ...the AFGANASTAN ISSUE ...THATS A BIG ONE FOR ME ...all this stuff seems to be clear ...its not ...Why cant we get a understanding to these simple matters ? on one hand the Govt. says its clear in the budget how much money is allowed for the war ...a war that is not a war but a occupation ...and yet someone that has looked at the budget and failed to find the figures is told its all right there in very detailed amounts a Canadian I feel very stupid ...and unless the only sane people in our country are the ones that are ruining it what are we to do ? I look at this Govt. and most that participate in it with contempt ..Just watch a episode of what goes on in the house ..I feel I must be sick or twisted in some way to be able to sit threw one .Confidence is one of the last words I would use to describe our national assembly ...katou

Anonymous said...
Hey good luck fishing ..I wish I had a hut ...this link might work better than the last ....katou

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Hey good luck fishing ..I wish I had a hut

Thanks, Katou. I actually meant to to be a metaphor of sorts, but I will be hot-tubbing in the snow if that counts. ;)

Anonymous said...

darn Canadian winters ....their just too long ...katou

Möbius said...

but I will be hot-tubbing in the snow if that counts. ;)

Will there be candid photos?

Me, and a lot of others who voted for Rae in Ontario, will never mark an X next to his name again.

Hope they pick him for the next leader!

Anonymous said...

Rae will never be able to live down his NDP Ontario past...never! You can change parties but the legacy of debt, Rae Days and despair doesn't.

Harper's Christmas re-lived