Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Holding your nose so you don't smell the stench

Why is Dalton McGuinty ignoring calls for David Caplan's resignation?

As Christina Blizzard points out, the previous Tory government had a few issues arise of an even less serious nature, and the relevant cabinet ministers took a 'time-out', even though they weren't personally implicated in any wrongdoing.



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Update: Joan Tintor makes a nice catch here - Fiberal Spinners...

CLASS ACTION SUIT LAUNCHED! - H/T National Newswatch.

Step to the Right
- Lots of links and facts on the OLG Scandal.

9 comments:

Swift said...

We should be surprised? Int4egrity and responsibility are four letter words if you are a Liberal.

Anonymous said...

I can hardly see how this is some sort of horrid scandal Joanne.

Zac

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Oh, this could play out very well for the opposition parties, Zac. This one might stick.

Anonymous said...

Well, if you think you can work it, go nuts. I can't see it sticking though. Most of the people who I talk to place the blame with the OLG not the party, but whatever floats your boat.

You Tories might be better off working another angle.

Zac

Joanne (True Blue) said...

You Tories might be better off working another angle.

That cinches it. I'm hanging on to this one like a dog with a bone.

Anonymous said...

That cinches it. I'm hanging on to this one like a dog with a bone.

Ok, have fun.

Zac

liberal supporter said...

It seems the fact WK was consulted is more important than the boring statisticians, who do not see a statistical link. OLG has it in their FAQ here

The idea that your odds of winning do not increase with the amount of play is bogus. Your chances do improve the more tickets you buy. Your chances especially improve if you compare buying one ticket with not buying any ticket.

The examples cited of "myths of gambling" are correct, that past numbers should not influence future numbers, and that timing of handle pulls has no effect. But they have nothing to do with the fact that the more you play, the more chances you have of winning something.

If 6-49 odds are 1 in 14 million, and I buy two tickets, I now have 2 chances in 14 million. Actually 2 chances in 14 million and one, since my extra ticket should be added in. That only comes into play if I buy large numbers of tickets.

If I double the number of tickets I buy after each time I lose, I will eventually make all my money back and more. The only problem is the doubling very quickly becomes too expensive to sustain. If I buy 14 million tickets, I have 14 million in 28 million chances (my 14 million have to be added to the 14 million others bought), so it becomes one chance in two.

What does not increase is the "expected payout". If I buy two tickets my odds of winning are twice as high, but the expected rate of return that is, how much I get out on average, compared to how much I put in, stays the same.

On the OLG page said the statisticians said there was not enough information to assess. You need to know how many times insiders play, and compare that with how many times they win. You can't simply say that insiders are some percentage of the general population and compare that percentage with the percentage of insiders that are winners.

I would suspect that insiders do play more, since they are exposed to it 8 hours a day, and constantly reminded to play. Kind of like trying to quit smoking when you live with a smoker.

In line ups to pay for gas, I do see the retailers now telling everyone to sign every ticket they buy. That makes sense.

Still, for lotteries, where the perception of fairness is paramount, they need to do the extra research to determine if there is a widespread problem.

They need to be more upfront about the frauds they do find. You hear more about frauds with the banks and credit cards now, and it has the effect of making people feel they are keeping it under control.

PGP said...

"They need to be more upfront about the frauds they do find. You hear more about frauds with the banks and credit cards now, and it has the effect of making people feel they are keeping it under control....."

Perhaps if the OLGC found a CEO through a legitimate hiring process rather than having the position appointed?

Joanne (True Blue) said...

They need to be more upfront about the frauds they do find.

Exactly. I think it is this nuance of a coverup that has everyone uneasy.